Test #1 is on Wednesday, March 6 at 3:05PM in our usual classroom.

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EXAM POLICIES AND PROCEDURES

There will be randomly assigned seating, so arrive a few minutes early.  You must sit in your assigned seat.

The exam is closed book and closed notes.  NO books or notes are allowed.

During the exam, you may have in your possession ONLY what you need to write with (pens, pencils, and erasers) and a water bottle (if you absolutely need one).  All other items (INCLUDING CELL PHONES) must be left at the front of the classroom during the exam.  This includes backpacks, purses, books, notes, etc.  You may keep small items such as keys, coins, and wallets (but NOT CELL PHONEs or any other devices with internet or phone or computational abilities) so long as they remain in your pockets at all times.  If requested, you must be willing to empty your pockets for inspection of their contents (so don't have anything in your pockets you would object to showing me).

Please note that, if you violate any of the rules above, you will automatically get a zero on the exam.  (Your exam will NOT be graded.)  In particular, if you are found in possession of a cell phone during the exam, you automatically get a zero.

The arithmetic on the exams is generally kept fairly simple.  If I think there are any problems which require a calculator, I will let you know by e-mail the morning of the exam in which case you may bring an ordinary scientific calculator (but NOT a computer or any device with internet or phone capability or ...).  The exact calculator policy for the exam is the same as that for the SAT exam stated at:

https://satsuite.collegeboard.org/sat/what-to-bring-do/calculator-policy

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EXAM COVERAGE:

The exam will cover the course material in the folder test1_material in mordor.

The main emphasis of the exam will be on the lecture notes in the following files:

02_correlation.pdf
03_regression.pdf
attic_ols_example.pdf (in folder 05)
durbin-watson.pdf (in folder 05)
lynx_acf_example.pdf (in folder 08)
added_pacf_interp.pdf (in folder 08)
01_arma_processes.pdf (in folder 09)
02b_population_of_time_series.pdf (in folder 09)
11_more_arma.pdf (in folder 09)
11_estimation.pdf
01_sas_syntax.pdf (in folder 12)

But you can also expect questions similar to those on the homework or questions requiring the interpretation of SAS output or relating to points discussed during lecture.

A few items were not discussed and will not be covered on the exam.  They have been placed in folders with the name "not_covered".

You will NOT be asked to write any SAS code, but you should understand all the SAS output that we discussed in class, and be familiar with the SAS syntax for ARMA models used in the ESTIMATE statement.

The format of the exam will be similar to the past exams posted in mordor.  The exam will consist mainly of multiple choice questions, but may also contain short answer (fill in the blank) questions.