\chapter{Conclusion}
\label{ch:conc}



In this paper, it was found that not all market variables are significant in a logistic regression model.  The models found that the financial ratio variables that targeted a company's current leverage position, the company's current competitive advantages, the profitability margins were important factors in likelihood that the company would go into default on outstanding debt.  Also, a market indicator that illustrates recent movements in the issuer's value, price of last trade, was found to be significant in the model.  The objective of this process was to incorporate more timely affected data to an issuer because of the recent down trends in credit quality across the spectrum of companies in the current financial markets.

The models provided in this paper help to point a credit analyst in the right direction, however, more validation techniques need to be provided on the past predictions of the model.  Accuracy ratios are provided in this paper, however the lack of the capabilities to actually calculate CAP curves because of the lack of data in historical ratings may be researched in later updates of the model.  For the time being, the model does have high correlations with other substantial metrics in the financial markets, but still lacks the testing and calibration techniques of a true quantitative analyst.  